Yanna Krupnikov ( and John Barry Ryan ( associate professors of political science at Stony Brook University, are the authors of a forthcoming book about polarization and disengagement in American politics.This chapter reviews the political science literature on polarization, showing that polarization in American politics long precedes the internet and results primarily from asymmetric political-elite-driven dynamics. It turns them off.Īnd the major scandals that do break through? Well, to many of them, that is “just politics.” But most “regular” voters are not paying that much attention to the daily onslaught. Partisan Republicans wonder the same thing about Joe Biden. Yes, hard partisans are more likely to reward ideological victories, but they are also a minority of the electorate.Įach day, partisan Democrats wonder whether that day’s “outrage” will finally change how people feel about President Trump. There might be an advantage for politicians who focus less on the demands of partisans and more on tangible issues. Yet such political tweets, as the political communication scholar Shannon McGregor finds, are increasingly making their way into news coverage as stand-ins for public opinion. This is particularly true of social media: What a vocal minority shares on social media is not the opinion of the public. Featuring people who exemplify partisan conflict and extremist ideas elevates their presence in politics (though of course by definition, it is the partisans who are most closely watching the news who are also most likely to give their opinions). We can try to give the hardened partisans less voice in the news. How can politics better match the opinions of a majority of Americans? The fact is, it’s not an easy problem to solve. But most Americans just see two angry groups of people bickering over issues that may not always seem pressing or important. But nearly 70 percent of these people believe that a typical member of the other party talks about politics incessantly and is definitely not moderate.įor partisans, politics is a morality play, a struggle of good versus evil. Only 27 percent of these people said that they discuss politics frequently a majority consider themselves moderates. We asked a group of over 3,000 Americans to describe either themselves or members of the other party. We see this effect in a study we did with three other political scientists, James Druckman, Samara Klar and Matthew Levendusky. When a Democrat imagines a Republican, she is not imagining a co-worker who mostly posts cat pictures and happens to vote differently she is more likely imagining a co-worker she had to mute on Facebook because the Trump posts became too hard to bear. This gap between the politically indifferent and hard, loud partisans exacerbates the perception of a hopeless division in American politics because it is the partisans who define what it means to engage in politics. To put this in perspective, a Pew study finds that 10 percent of Twitter users are responsible for 97 percent of all tweets about politics. It’s only 11 percent for those without a politics habit. Almost 45 percent of people who are deeply involved say they frequently share their views on social media - in some cases, daily. Hard partisans are also more likely to speak out about these political likes and dislikes. Hard partisans are twice as likely as people who pay less attention to politics to say that they would be unhappy if their child married someone of the opposing party. These gaps extend beyond issues to feelings about the other party. But less-attentive Democrats are 25 percentage points more likely to name moral decline as an important problem facing the country - a problem partisan Democrats never even mention. But less-attentive Republicans ranked it second to last, and they were also concerned about the deficit and divisions between Democrats and Republicans.Īmong Democrats, the political junkies think the influence of wealthy donors and interest groups is an urgent problems. Partisan Republicans were most likely to say drug abuse was the most important problem facing the country. Michelle Cottle examin es two primary contests that “will shake the parties well beyond the states in play.”.Ezra Klein speaks to David Shor, who discusses his fear that Democrats face electoral catastrophe unless they shift their messaging.Matthew Continetti writes that “time and again, the biggest obstacle to a red wave hasn’t been the Democratic Party.Mark Penn and Andrew Stein write that "only a broader course correction to the center will give Democrats a fighting chance in 2022" and beyond.Opinion Debate Will the Democrats face a midterm wipeout?
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